美国 9 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 报 54.5% 在手订单大增

Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month, propelled by accelerating new orders and an expanding accumulation of unfilled factory backlogs. The sustained industrial performance helped buffer the broader economy against escalating trade friction and rising global commodity prices.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 54.5% in September, edging down just 0.1 percentage point from August’s reading of 54.6%. The reading marks nine straight months of industrial expansion following a 10-month contraction period and signals that the broader U.S. economy grew for a 23rd consecutive month. In ISM’s economic modeling, a PMI reading of 54.5% corresponds to a 2.4% annualized increase in real gross domestic product.

“In September, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, only New Orders and Employment grew faster than the previous month.”

New orders and factory backlogs

A fresh wave of demand reinforced factory output during the month, with the New Orders Index expanding for the ninth consecutive month to 55.3%, a 1.6 percentage point increase from August’s 53.7%. Factory output also remained robust: The Production Index registered 56.7%, marking its 11th consecutive month of growth, though slowing 1.6 percentage points from August’s 58.3%.

With new demand outstripping output capacity in several high-tech categories, order backlogs expanded at a faster rate. The Backlog of Orders Index jumped 4.6 percentage points to 56.4% in September, up from 51.8% in August, led by gains in computer and electronic products as well as fabricated metals.

Five of the nation’s six largest manufacturing industries—Computer & Electronic Products, Chemical Products, Transportation Equipment, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products, and Machinery—reported higher new orders during the month.

ISM survey respondents highlighted burgeoning demand in semiconductor and defense supply chains, even as cross-border trade friction disrupted operations. “Coupled with supply chain lead times and pricing pressures, the factory backlog has nearly doubled,” noted an executive in the machinery sector. “Canada tariffs have impacted cross-border costs and left our supply chain team scrambling—those supply chains took years to develop and nurture—hurting the very lead times government buyers are concerned about.”

An executive in the computer and electronic products industry added that while manufacturing activity remains stable, “the U.S. tariff schedule is providing challenges,” citing difficulties in finding alternate supply sources outside China, local pushback on domestic data center construction, and persistent component shortages.

Factory hiring increased due to labor and material shortages

To keep pace with rising backlogs, industrial employers expanded payrolls at a faster rate. The ISM Employment Index rose 1.5 percentage points to 52.7% in September, compared with 51.2% in August, representing a third consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment.

Survey panelists favored hiring over headcount reductions by a 1.5-to-1 ratio. Eight manufacturing industries reported expanding employment in September, led by Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, Primary Metals, and Wood Products. Among the nation’s six largest manufacturing sectors, Computer & Electronic Products and Transportation Equipment posted employment gains.

However, worker shortages and raw material bottlenecks continue to restrain factory output. “Our biggest challenge continues to be a severe shortage of workers, limiting our production output to meet demand,” said an executive in the fabricated metal products sector. “The second challenge is general availability of steel; the market is getting worse, and more production delays are expected as we gap out of needed material.”

Canada tariffs and Middle East war drive material costs higher

Despite ongoing output gains, factory managers face steep operational hurdles from soaring raw material prices, trade policy volatility, and geopolitical conflict. The Prices Index jumped 6.8 percentage points in September to 77.9%, up from 71.1% in August, reaching a level close to the 78.3% recorded in March at the start of the Iran war. The index indicates that raw material prices increased for the 24th consecutive month, with 58.6% of survey respondents reporting higher prices compared to 46.2% in August.

All six of the largest manufacturing sectors reported paying higher prices for raw materials in September. “The Prices Index reading is still being driven by (1) increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, (2) tariffs applied to many imported goods and (3) increases in petroleum-based products as a result of the Middle East conflict,” Spence said.

Supply chain logistics remained under strain, with the Supplier Deliveries Index registering 59.0%. While down 0.3 percentage point from August’s 59.3%, the reading indicates slower delivery performance for the 10th consecutive month.

Survey comments reflected growing frustration over trade tariffs and foreign policy disruptions. “Every month, we are faced with new headwinds created by this administration,” said an executive in the transportation equipment industry. “This month, it is the trade war with Canada, which every day is getting worse—causing prices to go up and uncertainty that creates massive disruption. Buying continues to get pushed out indefinitely as customers don’t want to spend on capital expenditures until there is more certainty of costs and demand.”

An executive in the electrical equipment and appliances sector similarly noted that raw metal costs remain challenging due to the “uncertain nature of tariffs being on and off again,” adding that new tariffs against Canada have “drastically increased costs for capital expenses as well as assemblies.” Meanwhile, a chemical products manager cautioned that recent performance was driven by temporary market effects, including geopolitical uncertainties and customers bringing forward purchases, rather than a sustained structural recovery.

Manufacturing growth overshadowed by uncertainty

The industrial expansion remained broad-based across the manufacturing sector, with 12 of 18 industries reporting overall growth in September. Growth was led by Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, Nonmetallic Mineral Products, Primary Metals, Plastics & Rubber Products, and Computer & Electronic Products. Five of the six largest manufacturing industries expanded, while only two industries—Printing & Related Support Activities and Textile Mills—reported overall contraction.

Indicating potential strength for future factory output, the Customers’ Inventories Index decreased 1.2 percentage points to 41.6% in September, remaining in “too low” territory for the 24th consecutive month. “A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production,” Spence noted.

Raw materials inventories at factories contracted, with the Inventories Index falling 2.0 percentage points to 48.6%. Furthermore, overall sentiment among supply executives leaned negative. Forty percent of comments were positive and 60% negative, a 1-to-1.6 positive-to-negative ratio. Among negative comments, pricing volatility was cited in 46%, tariffs in 34%, the Iran war in 30%, and increasing lead times in 21%.

Despite these headwinds, overall manufacturing weakness remained localized: ISM said only 2% of manufacturing GDP contracted in September, down sharply from 22% in August. The 2% of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction—defined as a composite PMI of 45% or lower—remained unchanged from August.